Markets have yet to see the earthquake feared by some, but tremors are becoming more frequent.
Three separate wobbles in China have been absorbed without any calamity. But London shares fell steadily this week, after Morgan Stanley warned that conditions were ripe for a 1,000 point tumble.
The Footsie has doubled since its low point in March 2003 and had been closing in on its all-time peak of 6,930.2 in December 1999.
Optimists say company earnings have since grown sharply, so that even if they regain their old peak, shares will be less expensive this time. After a four-year bull market, a correction is surely nothing to worry about.
• Brian O'Connor is one of Fleet Street's most respected financial journalists. One of his tips from last year soared from 18p to 113p. Read: Investment Extra share tips
For it to become a crash, you would need further shocks - interest rates going through the roof, which is unlikely, a huge worsening in global political tensions - possible - or another big terrorist incident.
A share fall does not spell real trouble unless it pushes a bank or hedge fund over the edge, which would spark a wider credit crunch.
Bond markets are nervous. We must hope that the world's central banks have been alert enough to prevent trouble, but who can say after years of easy money?
We have urged investors to be cautious and to sell more speculative stocks - oil and mining minnows, with no income and depending wholly on hope value, and anything which needs to raise more money soon to keep going.
If you hold index tracking funds, it might be wise to lock in profits after four good years.
Monday, July 2, 2007
Stock market wobbles: Should you sell?
Posted by peyank at 2:17 PM
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